Pending Home Sales Gain, Possible Spring Surge

According to the National Association of Realtors:

Pending home sales rose in February, potentially signaling a second surge of home sales in response to the home buyer tax credit.  The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January, and remains 17.3 percent above February 2009 when it was 83.2. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

The Pending Home Sales Index is based on a scale of 1 to 100.  One hundred is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.  The index breaks out differently from region to region. In the Northeast the index rose 9.0 percent to 77.7 in February and is 18.9 percent higher than February 2009. In the Midwest the index jumped 21.8 percent to 97.9 and is 18.7 percent above a year ago.  Pending home sales in the South increased 9.2 percent to an index of 107.0, and the index is 17.5 percent higher than February 2009. In the West the index fell 4.8 percent to 98.0 but is 14.6 percent above a year ago.

These numbers and anecdotal evidence from various markets around the country, has led the National Association of Realtors to suggest that there is a distinct possibility of surge in home sales for the spring.  According to the NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun:

“Anecdotally, we’re hearing about a rise of activity in recent weeks with ongoing reports of multiple offers in more markets, so the March data could demonstrate additional improvement from buyers responding to the tax credit.”

All of this together looks like good news for the market as a whole and Los Angeles in particular.